Good morning from the train to Durham. Rishi Sunak delivered another solid performance in last night’s BBC head-to-head with Keir Starmer, perfecting his springy if supercilious debating style.
His strategy is to convince voters that Starmer is not being honest about the tax rises and financial damage the Labour leader would inflict on the country as prime minister. Sunak, in contrast, wants to be seen as frank. “You may disagree with me, but this is what I think,” has become a refrain. That’s the divide he wants to draw between himself and Starmer, who continues to suffer from supporting, and then turning on, Jeremy Corbyn. The question is: will it work?
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Sunak and Starmer have more in common than they would like to admit. Both are diligent, details-oriented, technocratic workaholics. But it was Sunak who got the best over Starmer last night.
Much as when he failed to rebut the claim Labour would impose tax rises of £2,000 in the first debate, Starmer missed opportunities to ram home Labour’s plan. When asked about what he would do for women, he didn’t mention Labour’s mission to halve violence against women and girls. When asked how he would pay for policies, he didn’t mention economic growth. His argument on welfare seemed to be that people could only work when they are healthy, therefore, reducing NHS waiting lists will reduce the welfare bill. But he didn’t make the connection clear; he appeared to be avoiding the question by citing the NHS.
All of which created a vacuum for Sunak to fill. The Prime Minister has whittled down his talking points. He reeled off welfare, tax and housing policies with a precision that belied their efficacy but which drew a sharp contrast with a less forthcoming Starmer. Sunak’s incredulity towards Labour’s plan to “smash the people-smuggling gangs” was effective because it tapped into people’s scepticism about whether the boats can be stopped from coming across the Channel. As George writes in his review, “negative campaigning enjoys a deservedly bad reputation – but it does change minds”.
And yet, little of this matters. The debate stretched for over an hour and a quarter in a 43-day campaign. Viewing numbers are down compared with 2019. The abundance of debates (we’ve had seven) has dulled their impact. An audience member asked a question that epitomised the problem: “Are you two really the best we have got?” The question was personal, an attack on both men as individuals.
One reason policy has been pushed to the side in this election, alongside the fact that people want the Tories gone at whatever cost, is that Starmer holds as close to the Conservatives as possible to avoid drifting into the weeds. It’s an uninspiring strategy and could create further problems in the future, but the polls suggest it is working.
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Ben’s take
OK, apart from with Freddie’s copy above, let’s ignore last night’s debate. Where has Keir Starmer been this campaign?
The data implies he’s been playing it rather safe this election season (who knew?). Britain Predicts has Labour on course for in excess of 400 seats. The expectation from those on the ground is that this isn’t far from the truth. But Starmer has been visiting locales that, while not ultra marginal, would put Labour closer to 380 than 450.
Notably, he visited Brighton Pavilion, a seat held by the Greens’ Caroline Lucas (but who is now standing down), and a seat that Green council candidates got trounced in at last year’s local elections. His visit is perhaps an indication that his party is targeting the Greens’ solitary seat.
Just as well for the Greens, then, that they’re gunning for other seats.
And with that…
I’m heading to a Reform rally in Houghton le Spring for a piece we’ll publish this weekend. Will Dunn will be with you tomorrow.
Let me know what you think about today’s Morning Call by hitting reply.
Have a great day,
Freddie — @freddiejh8
If you repeat a lie loudly enough and often enough, it doesn't become true. We Brits need to remember that. The Tories parroting of the Trump playbook and Sunak's hectoring ya-boo gaslighting is not something we want in our political 'debates' or from the alleged 'leader' of our country. The sooner these amoral no-marks are consigned to oblivion and the grown-ups can get on with fixing the damage they've done, the better.
Mrs M. far more temperate than me, watched. She said the Sunak refrain of ‘surrender’ did cut through, but she thought it so martial that it ended up sounding pretty silly. And rather pleading. He started off campaign with National Service and is ending up with a claim that we are selling out the country to an internal enemy. Hmm.
Tories in their backs agin the wall moment have launched a late counter-offensive. The counter will enthuse some switherers. The offensive will pee off others. Brits are mostly centrists and the notion that Starmer’s lot is a Red Fifth Column is a big stretch.