Good morning. A reminder from me that there is still time to register to vote – just! The deadline is 11.59 tonight. Morning Call readers are no doubt super-organised and will have registered weeks ago, but if there’s someone in your life who hasn’t got around to it yet, do direct them to the Register to Vote page on the government’s website before it’s too late. Freddie is back for your usual MC service from tomorrow, but if you want to know how to make sure your vote counts, read on…
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How significant a role will tactical voting play in this election?
It’s worth considering, and this stage of the campaign – with postal votes landing on doorsteps as you read this – seems as good a time as any. Especially as the pro-EU campaign group Best for Britain yesterday published its guide to voting tactically to have the best chance of ousting the Tories.
With the latest polls showing the gap between the Conservatives and Labour widening rather than narrowing as expected (why this narrowing without much evidence to support it was expected is a question for another day), it’s not as though tactical voting will play a defining role in who forms the next government. But given how strong the anti-Tory sentiment on the doorstep is, there is reason to believe it could be the difference between a bad defeat for the Conservatives and Armageddon.
We know tactical voting can make a huge impact in by-elections. While there have not been any official pacts between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, some of the historic majority-overturning wins we’ve seen in recent years – in North Shropshire (Tory to Lib Dem), Tiverton and Honiton (Tory to Lib Dem), Selby and Ainsty (Tory to Labour) – were helped by a tacit understanding that the two opposition parties would focus their resources where they had a strong chance of beating the Conservatives, and elsewhere otherwise give the other a clear(ish) run.
It is also coming up on the doorsteps. In conversations with volunteers in constituencies across the country, I’ve been told time and again of voters in currently Tory seats opening the door and asking canvassers who they ought to vote for to have the greatest chance of getting the Conservatives out.
How much impact all this will have is up for debate. A poll for Best for Britain says that over 40 per cent of people would consider voting tactically to remove the Tories. Of course, the people likely to respond to such a poll will probably be more politically engaged than the average voter (the group also says that two in three people can’t name which party is likely to come second in their area). But in the local elections in May, council seats won by Labour and the Liberal Democrats exceeded the parties’ national vote share. That suggests voters were already thinking tactically when they filled out their ballots.
Since then, with the Conservative election campaign in freefall, seats that would normally be considered safe Tory holds have suddenly come into play. Best for Britain’s analysis suggests that, should tactical voting take hold, Jeremy Hunt won’t be the only high-profile Tory at risk. Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps, James Cleverly and Robert Jenrick are also vulnerable. With a big enough effort, suggests the group, Suella Braverman and even Liz Truss might also worry. (Truss is facing an independent challenger in the form of former Tory James Bagge – interviewed by me last month.)
As for Rishi Sunak himself, his Richmond and Northallerton constituency in North Yorkshire is also looking unexpectedly susceptible to a Labour win. Or it would be were the satirical candidate Count Binface not muscling in on the Prime Minister’s patch, in the hope of siphoning off a few hundred protest votes. How ironic would it be if, come 5 July, Sunak owed his seat to a self-professed “intergalactic space warrior” splitting the anti-Tory vote?
Two final notes about tactical voting. One: as the New Statesman’s data genius Ben Walker likes to point out, voters are becoming less tribal and more promiscuous. Having access not just to the internet but snazzy data modelling tools like those used by Best for Britain gives voters more opportunity than ever to tailor their votes to make the greatest impact. Whatever role tactical voting plays in three weeks’ time, it isn’t going away. Labour should be wary: the same models voters are using now to send a message to the Tories will be just as useful in punishing a Labour government in future elections.
Two: it’s not just the left who can play at this game. There are dozens of seats – over 100, according to some polls – where Reform could make the difference between a tight Conservative hold and a Labour win. CCHQ has been funnelling its resources into urging Tory-leaning moderates in such places to back Conservative candidates. But a shock MPR Survation poll at the weekend showed Reform winning in seven seats: Clacton (where Nigel Farage is standing), along with North West Norfolk, Great Yarmouth, South Suffolk, Exmouth and Exeter East, Mid Leicestershire, and Ashfield. Taking account of boundary changes, all of these went Tory in 2019.
That makes seven constituencies where centrists – or, indeed, those on the left – who are appalled at the Conservatives’ record of late have a tough choice to make. If they want to keep out the threat of Farage and give the Conservatives a chance to rebuild as the party of the sensible right which can see off fringe populists, tactical voting suggests they hold their noses and vote Tory.
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If I lived in one of those constituencies where Reform might win I don't think that even that would allow me to cast a vote for the Tory. I think it more likely that I would cut off my hand. In any case the Tories and Reform MPs will no doubt be on the same side when it comes to voting in the HoC.
We live in Exmouth and East Exeter and will not be "holding our noses and voting Tory". If the Survation figures are correct (and there seems to be some doubt about this) Labour and the Tories are neck and neck, with Reform currently four points ahead of both. If enough Lib Dems, and a few Greens, are prepared to vote tactically for the Labour candidate, it should be enough to see off both candidates of the Right. There's also a small matter of the Reform candidate's 2023 conviction for animal cruelty to be factored in. Full story in the Mirror of 6th June.