Morning Call: All-out war
Labour is at the centre of the UN’s attempt to prevent conflict in Lebanon.
Good morning. All eyes are on New York today at the UN General Assembly, where last night 12 members called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. I recap the situation below, as world leaders today continue their efforts to avert “all-out war” in the Middle East.
To enjoy our latest analysis of politics, news and events, in addition to world-class literary and cultural reviews, click here to subscribe to the New Statesman. You’ll enjoy all of the New Statesman’s online content, ad-free podcasts and invitations to NS events.
“We are on the brink. The precipice. At a few minutes to midnight.” These were the words of Foreign Secretary David Lammy last night at the UN Security Meeting, as the UK joined the US and ten other allies in calling for a 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The situation has escalated quickly since last week’s remarkable story of exploding Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies. Rocket fire between the two sides has intensified, with fears that Israel is preparing for a ground offensive in southern Lebanon, moving the situation one step closer to “all-out war” in the Middle East. That’s the phrase used by President Joe Biden last night.
It’s also the headline of this week’s New Statesman cover story by Lawrence Freedman, who writes that “Israel is pursuing a strategy often described as ‘escalate to de-escalate’, which means ramping up the pressure on Hezbollah in order to persuade it to look for a way out of the war and agree to a ceasefire.” Neither side wants the conflict to tip over into a full-blown regional war that could drag in Iran and potentially even the US. This is what has maintained an uneasy equilibrium over the past year, as Israel focused its resources on destroying Hamas, and Hezbollah confined its efforts to firing rockets over the border.
Now that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has announced it has completed its operations in Rafah in southern Gaza, the calculation is shifting. The IDF has set a new goal: returning to their homes the 60,000 Israelis who were evacuated from near the Lebanese border at the start of the war, to escape Hezbollah missiles. Freedman adds of Israel’s latest efforts: “This is essentially a coercive strategy, which has the standard problem that it is easier to ramp up pressure than it is to get the desired political results.”
This morning, Israel said it hit 75 Hezbollah targets overnight. Lebanon has put the total killed since the bombardment began at more than 600. According to the UN, 90,000 people have been newly displaced in Lebanon since Monday.
Where does this leave the UN’s call for a ceasefire? Today, the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will speak to the General Assembly in New York, in response to last night’s vote. Israel’s opposition leader, Yair Lapid, has said his country should accept the ceasefire proposal “but only for seven days”, while finance minister Bezalel Smotrich (one of the more extreme figures in Netanyahu’s government) has said the campaign should only end in “crushing Hezbollah and denying its ability to harm residents in the north”.
Keir Starmer will also make a speech at the UN General Assembly later today, where he will recommit Britain “to the UN, to internationalism, to the rule of law”. It’s a line very much in keeping with how the Prime Minister and his Foreign Secretary pledged to approach foreign policy long before the election. When they first started drafting those lines, they probably did not anticipate that they would be heading straight from the first party conference under a Labour government in 14 years to a UN meeting with the aim of averting all-out war. It all makes the row over freebies – glasses, Arsenal tickets, a spare apartment so Starmer’s son could study in peace for his GCSEs – look pretty insignificant by comparison.
Reader survey
On behalf of our commercial partners
Rachel’s picks
Rajan Menon and Daniel R DePetris look at Netanyahu’s escalation in Lebanon and warn that relentless warfare is no path to lasting success.
Hanna Davis reports from Lebanon and asks what comes next?
Hannah explores how creeping censorship captured Britain’s institutions.
And Will writes that the new AI smartphones represent a global social experiment into the future of humanity.
Did you know an estimated 81,000 UK jobs – that’s 1 in every 410 jobs – are supported by bp’s activities in the UK? bp has been investing in the UK for more than a century, including 60 years developing North Sea oil and gas. Read our latest economic impact report, produced with Oxford Economics, to find out more. bp.com/uk/EIR
Britain is basically just managing decline and slowly ebbing away as a serious World player that the World listens to anymore.
Where is the growth going to come from?
Our pathetic infrastructure alone doesn't lend itself to allowing for serious growth... Period
"Neither side wants the conflict to tip over into a full-blown regional war that could drag in Iran and potentially even the US." Citation needed
"a spare apartment so Starmer’s son could study in peace for his GCSEs" a penthouse suite worth 18 million, and declared for a period extending 3 weeks after the exam period.