Good morning from Kettering, where Keir Starmer is visiting yet another school. Meanwhile, the Tory party cannot shake the gambling scandal. Thoughts below.
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The betting scandal engulfing the Conservative campaign has the potential to become an election-defining story. Two weeks ago, it emerged that Craig Williams, the prime minister’s parliamentary private secretary had placed a £100 bet on a July election three days before Rishi Sunak named the date. Since then, the number of senior Tory officials who are suspected of placing bets on a July election has increased to four. Yesterday, Sky News reported the Gambling Commission was investigating “many more” people than was currently public and was asking betting firms to provide details of all bets over £20 on the election date.
Let’s be clear about why this is so bad for the Conservatives. These Tories are alleged to be treating the election like a game. If they are found guilty (and one of the accused has denied the allegations), it means senior party officials hoped to score a tidy bonus from their privileged position in power. They were seeking to profit from democracy. The story reveals a greedy, self-serving approach to politics that will intensify the Tories’ grubby reputation. It stinks, just like the PPE scandal during Covid.
Worse, it makes the party look frivolous and unserious. Nothing symbolises the Tories’ death drive more than the prospect of gambling on the date of their potentially disastrous defeat. Their house is on fire and they appear to be grabbing what they can.
All of which invites the question: why did Rishi Sunak not suspend the accused candidates, as the police did with an officer arrested over similar gambling allegations who worked in the PM’s close protection team? Sunak has merely said that he is furious with the staff and that an investigation is ongoing. But this story will not go away. Reports in the Sunday Times suggest a second “wave” of allegations is coming. A story epitomising Tory carelessness is dominating the news agenda in the campaign’s penultimate week.
Michael Gove, usually a zealous defender of the government, has compared the scandal to partygate. That six-month spree of dishonesty and drip-drip revelations eventually resulted in Boris Johnson’s demise. If Sunak does lose in two weeks’ time, then the gambling scandal could be what this election is remembered for: a wilfully incompetent Tory campaign that did everything it could to lose as many votes as possible.
Freddie’s picks
Rachel makes a strong case for why the Tories’ woes started long before the election was called.
“In an inversion of the usual cliché, the campaign is being conducted in prose, while the result will read like apocalyptic poetry.” Phil Tinline looks at whether Labour can create a new political consensus.
Is this the peak of the Taylor Swift phenomenon? Anna reviews her Eras tour.
Nigel Farage cited my conversation with the former Nato chief George Robertson when he told the BBC that the West “provoked” Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine – Robertson said EU expansion was a reason for the war. Read my interview with Robertson here.
Mailshot
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Tim McDonnell: Go better not bigger with the AI power grid
Martin Wolf: Election contest dishonesty undermines democracy
Janice Turner: Irvine Welsh interview
Anna Russell: Andrew O’Hagan’s bonfire of the vanities
Haley Stewart: Keep fairy tales grim
Russia unveils anti-drone robot named after Disney character
Ben’s take
Is the Prime Minister in trouble in his own seat of Richmond and Northallerton in Yorkshire?
A Survation poll puts him ahead by 11 points. But according to Britain Predicts it’s closer.
Michael Portillo lost his Enfield seat in 1997 by a 3-point margin, after a poll put him 3 points ahead a week before election day. In elections where the race is tight and a personality is in play, voters may smell blood and act accordingly. But the Survation numbers suggest it might just be out of reach for Labour.
And besides, Enfield is not Richmond. Enfield had a history of Labour strength and Labour councillors. Richmond has none of that.
And with that…
Rachel and I answer your questions on the latest episode of the podcast:
My thanks to George Monaghan, Barney Horner and Ben Walker.
Have a great day,
Freddie — @freddiejh8
Freddie I think you need to be very very careful about what you write. Your intro to the Farage piece on the Ukraine war said 'Nigel Farage cited my conversation with the former Nato chief George Robertson when he told the BBC that the West “provoked” Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine – Robertson said EU expansion was a reason for the war. Read my interview with Robertson here.' Robertson didn't actually say that it was a reason. It may be infered as could lots of other things but he didn't actually say that either. I'd suggest you change your intro. Thank you