Good morning. The election is two weeks away. And yet commentators and pollsters are finding it increasingly difficult to talk in the hypothetical. Poll after poll showing Labour on course for a historic majority and the Conservatives scrapping with the Lib Dems to be the official opposition has calcified the perception that the result is certain. For many, “if” has become “when”.
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The expectation that Labour will win is self-reinforcing. Politics is as much about momentum as it is about policy. Journalists and political opponents who sense weakness will sniff out blood. Look at the media round this morning. The Conservatives’ man, Mel Stride, the Work and Pensions Secretary and Sunak ally, had to field questions over whether his boss was a “absolute dud”, as a Tory donor put it yesterday. Stride looked forlorn, worn out and beaten. He was supposed to be heralding inflation’s return to 2 per cent. But, as ever, positive news for the Tories is instantly tarnished by a scandal, infighting or a gaffe. They are like a man trying to stand up in the sea, only to be repeatedly knocked down by the waves.
The reverse is true for Labour. This morning Rachel Reeves was pushed to clarify whether Labour would hold a budget immediately after the election, or wait until the autumn. She is asked these questions because she is probably the person who will make the decision. Which in turn makes Labour look like a government in waiting. It gives the party authority and makes it appear the reliable, less chaotic option.
You can also see this phenomenon in the polling. New research from Survation shows the proportion of voters who think Keir Starmer would make a better prime minister than Sunak is rising. That’s no surprise when he is already treated like one. There’s been more focus on “Starmer the man” in this campaign than on what he would actually do in office. Few are asking similar questions of the Tories because the polls are supposedly making such questions redundant. Instead, the predicted defeat means that Sunak is painted as a lame duck by members of his own party.
The problem with this phenomenon is it minimises the scrutiny of the two alternative manifestos for government. The election race is prioritised over policy; political tactics placed above competing ideas. It’s an election for the strategists, not the visionaries.
Freddie’s picks
Our cover story this week is a symposium featuring leading thinkers and writers on how to fix Britain.
The SNP will launch its manifesto today. Chris Deerin analyses who is really winning in Scotland.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is in Pyongyang meeting Kim Jong Un. Katie explains what it all means.
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Ben’s take
Something I think needs a bit more attention is the fact that a great many Scots will be going to the polls in July not with their favourite party in mind, but the party they think best for furthering either independence or the Union. This poll from YouGov finds three in ten voters in Scotland are prioritising whoever will do just that.
And in seats where the two-party choice is literally the Union or independence, that can only point to an increased probability of tactical voting. We find that 26 per cent of Scots say the primary motivation for their vote is to stop the party they like least from winning. That includes a third of Scottish Tory voters, and a fifth of Scottish Labour.
In seats along the Scottish border and in Aberdeenshire, that might mean up to a fifth of prospective Labour voters are reconsidering their choice come polling day. Likewise a third of Tory voters in the central belt, in Edinburgh, and much of township Fife.
An inevitable consequence of this, then, could be the Scottish Tories holding on to more seats than forecasted.
Unless, that is, you’re looking at the Britain Predicts forecast.
And with that…
Let me know how your election is going by hitting reply. I’m keen to hear the latest from your local area.
Have a great day,
Freddie — @freddiejh8
Freddie,
While your article does provide a good insight into the way the campaigns are developing, I think you need to devote some time to the ideas that sit in the background.
Only a tiny minority is interested in the full details of manifestos. They do serve a purpose for the civil service and the House of Lords, but are otherwise rather redundant. All the time, in the background, as well as momentum there is the general feel amongst voters of the direction of potential government for each party and their ability to get there.
The Conservatives are failing on both points. Experience of the past fourteen years and infighting within the party destroys their old reputation for competence. Their fixation with reducing taxes suggest a direction for all other aspects of government that just doesn't appeal.
A combination of memories of Blair's government (if not Brown's) means that a lot of voters see Labour as competent at day-to-day government. Starmer's rigid control of the party reinforces this. And while without eye-catching policies their modest proposals on policies suggest a direction more in keeping with the mood of the country.
It's these twin strands, direction and ability to execute that are driving electors.
Freddie, this is well crafted. I think you have captured both the information and the mood music. Loved the image of the guy standing in the sea. You missed a Mel Stride joke there!
This Morning Call is going great guns. 👏